Read the current situation overview and answers to questions in another article - “Dr. Komarovsky answers questions about the coronavirus. Last news".
News of a dangerous new virus spreading rapidly in China naturally raises concerns about their health and the lives of children. Information in different sources is different and may turn out to be false. In such a situation, it is best to listen to the opinion of specialists, to whom Dr. Evgeny Olegovich Komarovsky belongs. Let's find out what the popular pediatrician thinks about the Chinese coronavirus and whether, in his opinion, it is dangerous for Russia in 2020.
This name was given to the virus because of its similarity to the corona due to the presence of thorns.
Situation in the world
The number of people infected with the coronavirus in China is steadily increasing, as is the number of deaths.
- As of January 27, 2020 about 3,000 people have already fallen ill, 81 people have died as a result of a viral infection. More than 30 thousand people who have been in contact with the infected are under close medical supervision.
- January 31, 2020 registered 9776 confirmed cases (outside of China - 118 cases), 213 people died.
- On February 5, 2020 (12 noon) 24,587 cases were registered, 3,300 were in serious condition, 23,300 were under suspicion of coronavirus disease, 926 people were discharged and 493 died (outside of China, 2 deaths).
- On February 12 (first half of the day) 45195 confirmed cases of cases and 1116 deaths were registered (outside of China there are also 2 deaths - in the USA and Japan).
- On February 18 (in the first half of the day), 73,335 confirmed cases were registered, 1873 died and 12887 recovered.
- On February 24 (first half of the day), 79,434 confirmed cases were registered, 2,620 dead and 25,103 recovered.
- On March 16 (11:30) 169387 cases were registered, 6513 died and 77257 recovered.
- March 20 registered 246,275 cases, 10,038 deaths and 86,036 recovered.
Cases outside the borders of the PRC are recorded in people who have recently arrived from China, and in those who have been in contact with patients. At the same time, people of any age are sick. At the moment, the smallest patient identified in Beijing is only 9 months old.
In Wuhan, 3 children were born to mothers with coronavirus. Their disease was not identified.
As you know, the virus was first detected in the city of Wuhan. It is a fairly large city with a population of about 11 million people. More than 1200 people are fighting a dangerous virus in it, carrying out the measures necessary to limit infection and treat sick people in the outbreak itself. The Chinese authorities are also helping in every way, blocking 15 cities with a total population of more than 60 million. In these cities, serious quarantine measures are applied.
From the good news of February 24, there is a decrease in the activity of epidemiological activity in the outbreak - Hubei province.
The bad news is the increased frequency of diagnoses of coronavirus outside Hubei, including in Europe. As of February 24, there are 3 hot spots in the world:
- 47 people in Iran (many countries around Iran are imposing severe restrictive measures);
- 763 cases and 7 deaths in Korea (the outbreak is localized by 90% in the city of Daegu with a population of 2.5 million);
- 157 cases and 4 deaths in Italy (all deaths - persons over 80 years old).
The number of cases directly depends on the quality of the test systems. Cases have been identified when the disease was confirmed, although the test systems showed no infection with coronavirus.
Komarovsky notes that the virus is being actively studied. It was isolated from patients and completely deciphered, determining that it belongs to coronaviruses that have not previously infected people. Sick animals became the source of the disease (according to most scientists - bats (the RNA of the virus coincides by 90%), which infected the pangolins, and in the body of the latter it mutated (the RNA of the virus began to coincide by 99%) and was transmitted to humans. was from animal to person, but the virus soon overcame the barrier and began to spread from sick person to healthy. This path is the main one at the moment.
The resistance of the coronavirus is identical to the SARS virus, the outbreak of which was in 2003, but the death rate from the coronavirus is lower.
Evgeny Olegovich supports the WHO's opinion that quarantine around the world is not yet required, and the outbreak is local.
On January 30, 2020, WHO declared a worldwide emergency the purpose of which is to draw the attention of countries to mobilize their own resources aimed at treating patients. If some countries do not have this opportunity, you need to ask for help. WHO is frightened by the unknown, and joining the efforts of all countries will help take the situation under control.
Outside Hubei province, the number of cases has been declining for eight consecutive days: on February 5, 2020, 2071 suspected coronavirus suspects were registered, February 10, 2020 - 960.
The New Year holidays in China will end on February 18, so a massive displacement of at least 160 million people (including jobs) is predicted, which could provoke an increase in cases.
In many cities in China, doctors have begun to bypass the population, taking temperature and analyzing symptoms, so the number of cases will rise. However, it should be taken into account that the statistics will include patients with mild severity of the disease, about whom no one would have known without this detour.
The danger of the virus
Separately, Komarovsky mentions messages urging people not to eat bananas. These sms, received by many people, claim that bananas are infected with the coronavirus. A popular physician calls such messages fiction and states that bananas are not dangerous and can be safely consumed at any time.
He also dispels fears about Chinese parcels, which are in great demand, because Chinese goods are available and diverse. According to Komarovsky, you can get them without fear. The incubation period after infection with coronavirus can last from 1 day to 2 weeks. The average value is 7 days, which creates the prerequisites for spread, because the infected for a long time does not know that the virus is already in his body.
At the same time, the infectiousness of the coronavirus from Wuhan, as Komarovsky notes, is not very high. It is slightly higher than the infectivity of influenza and 9 times lower than the infectivity of the measles virus. If the coronavirus gets into ideal conditions for it, then it can exist in the body for up to 14 days, after which the symptoms of the disease begin to appear, which lasts 5 to 7 days.
Since this is an RNA virus, it does not cause a chronic process. This means that all its activity lasts about 20 days (incubation period + period of illness), the majority of patients, as with other acute respiratory viral infections, recover, the disease does not cause serious complications.
On February 7, 2020, 91-year-old Chinese grandfather Wang was discharged from the hospital. He was treated for 10 days and recovered completely.
Currently mortality (the ratio of people who died and recovered) is 2.1%. Since mortality does not include the number of people who are sick at the moment, the figure is overestimated, and we will be able to find out a more accurate figure only in April.
Of the people killed, 80% are people over 60 years old (75% of them had severe lung and cardiovascular diseases). Currently, it has been proven that the disease develops most severely in older people with lung disease.
The doctor emphasizes that about half of patients with a mild course of the disease remain unattended, therefore the actual mortality rate is much lower. The coronavirus cannot be called the "plague of the 21st century" (as many advertise the disease in the media), since the death rate of the plague was higher than 95%.
The chance of recovery is 98%. In general, 80% of patients have mild symptoms, they recover without treatment, in 14% the disease proceeds in more complex forms, they have severe complications, 5% are in critical condition and 2% die.
People are considered to be recovered if the following three criteria are met:
- there is no increased body temperature (in the absence of taking antipyretics);
- there are no symptoms of illness, including cough;
- the examination revealed negative results in two smears taken at intervals of 24 hours.
Unlike an organism, on objects, including parcels or fruits, the virus cannot exist for long enough, since the conditions are not suitable for it. He dies quite quickly - according to Komarovsky, in 2-3 days at most (in case of contact with water-absorbing surfaces and not more than 1 hour at all). That is why there is no need to be afraid of Chinese packages.
Trusting the CDC data, Evgeny Olegovich cites the following statistics: 19 million cases of influenza have been registered in the United States, of which 180 thousand were hospitalized and 10 thousand died, of which 68 were children). At the same time, the CDC indicates that this year the incidence and mortality are lower than usual. The statistics for the number of deaths from the flu are more frightening than those for the coronavirus.
When will the epidemic end?
Many epidemiologists agree that the peak of the disease will occur in February, then there will be a decrease in the spread of coronavirus, by April the situation will stabilize and, most likely, the virus will be defeated.
Chinese epidemiologists say that the coronavirus loves cold (that is, closed windows), the warmer it is, the less the infection will spread.
Symptoms and Diagnosis
In China and the United States, special test systems have already been created to detect coronavirus. They analyze the secretions from the respiratory tract or blood, after which they accurately diagnose. Komarovsky claims that only they can confirm the presence of a dangerous strain in the body. Any other methods are just guesses and assumptions. The doctor calls the question of obtaining test systems by doctors from other countries one of the most important for correct diagnosis.
It is impossible to determine coronavirus infection only by the patient's complaints and the results of the examination. The symptoms of the Wuhan virus are similar to most acute respiratory viral infections, although they have some peculiarities. This infection is characterized by rapid damage to the lower respiratory tract. The patient has a fever, severe weakness and severe cough. Diarrhea and conjunctivitis are also common symptoms. However, the same symptoms are possible with other viral diseases.
Coronavirus rarely infects the upper respiratory tract and is located in the lung tissue, so in 30 to 50% of cases, a swab (taken from the upper respiratory tract) does not show infection. In this regard, computed tomography of the lungs has become an additional diagnostic method.
It has been proven that, in addition to airborne droplets, the virus has a fecal-oral mode of transmission, so the doctor reminds you that you need to wash your hands often, the procedure duration is at least 20 seconds.
Evgeny Olegovich draws attention to the high risk of infection with honey. personnel who take swabs for coronavirus: employees must be provided with the correct respirator, protective mask and protective clothing.
Prevention and treatment
The renowned doctor notes that standard epidemiological measures are needed to prevent infection. Should:
- avoid contact with sick people, do not travel to China;
- you do not need to use disposable masks if you are healthy (the virus easily penetrates through the existing holes in the mask) - the mask is intended for someone who is sick (the mask restrains the spread of infection, for example, when sneezing);
- stay at home when symptoms appear;
- wash hands and observe hygiene;
- visit less public places;
- often walk in the fresh air;
- ventilate the room regularly;
- drink enough fluids.
It is also important to monitor the hydration of the mucous membranes - use moisturizers, rinse the nose with saline solutions.
As for the vaccine, all advanced laboratories are working on it, but it will not appear very soon (as Dr. Komarovsky says - in 1.5-2 years). The creation of a vaccine can be difficult due to the fact that the disease has a high risk of re-infection, but this is not a determining factor: after the postponed diphtheria, immunity is also not developed, but the modern vaccine irritates immunity much more actively than a natural disease, forming a higher protective level of immunity. How long immunity from the coronavirus vaccine will last remains to be seen.
To treat the coronavirus from Wuhan, like most SARS, has to be symptomatic. Komarovsky also speaks out rather sharply about various immunomodulating drugs and interferons, noting that evidence-based medicine does not use such drugs.
One of the Chinese firms produces the drug "Favilavir" which in clinical trials among 70 seriously ill patients showed good results. The Chinese authorities, having analyzed the effectiveness of the treatment, have already given permission for the use of the drug in the clinic and further clinical trials, although this usually takes years and tens of thousands of patients.
Anglo-French biotechnology group Novacyt Group launched production molecular test, which within two hours can give an answer to the question of whether there is a coronavirus infection or not.
The coronavirus is afraid of high levels of chlorine, alcohol and hydrogen peroxide, which are used for prophylaxis in hospitals.
WHO asks to bring to the attention of the population information on the prevention of viral diseases (on coronavirus in particular):
- Wash your hands often with soap and water (at least 20 seconds) or use an alcohol-based hand wipe if they are not dirty. This helps to eliminate the virus if you have it.
- Cover your mouth and nose with bent elbows or tissue when coughing or sneezing. If you sneeze or cough into your hands, you can contaminate objects or people you touch. Throw the tissue immediately into the closed trash can and wipe your hands with an alcohol pad or soap and water.
- Maintain a distance of at least one meter between you and other people, especially those who cough, sneeze and have a fever, because the coughs or sneezes of people infected with a respiratory disease create small droplets containing the virus. If you get too close, you can inhale the virus.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth because your hands touch many surfaces that can be infected with the virus. If you touch your eyes, nose, or mouth with contaminated hands, you can transfer the virus from the surface to yourself.
- Tell your doctor if you have traveled to any area in China where an epidemic has been reported, or if you have been in close contact with someone who has traveled from China and has respiratory symptoms.
- If you have mild symptoms of respiratory infections and do not have a history of travel to China, practice basic airway and hand hygiene carefully and stay home, if possible, until you recover.
- Observe general hygiene practices when visiting live animal markets, wet markets, or animal products.
- Strictly avoid any contact with other animals on the market (eg stray cats and dogs, rodents, birds, bats).Avoid contact with potentially contaminated animal waste or liquids on the ground or on shop and market structures.
- Avoid eating raw or undercooked animal products. Handle raw meat, milk, or animal organs with care to avoid cross-contamination of raw food in accordance with food safety regulations.
Forecast
Komarovsky believes that, observing the development of the situation in China, we can say that the coronavirus does not pose a particular danger to Russia. He focuses on the fact that ordinary people cannot influence quarantine measures, but must do what is really in their power - to protect themselves from any viral infection and not infect others if they fall ill with ARVI.
Check out the leaflet issued by the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation.
